Mikita Balesni gives a personal AI extinction forecast
An OpenAI alignment researcher endorses monitorability measures while saying they are insufficient alone.
i am at OpenAI and i think AI is >10% likely to kill all humans
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Mikita Balesni identified himself as working at OpenAI and put the probability of AI killing all humans above 10%, without stating a time horizon. His research biography documents alignment work and a former founding-researcher role at Apollo. Mikita Balesni ↗Mikita Balesni ↗
He endorsed Greenblatt’s monitorability proposal but considered it insufficient alone. A follow-up linked Christiano’s statement and AI Futures material as explanations for his view. These are cited influences, not independent confirmations of his probability. Mikita Balesni ↗Mikita Balesni ↗
Sources & attribution
- Commentary 10 Sept 2026Personal risk forecast and monitorability endorsement ↗
Mikita Balesni. Original source inspected. Personal views.
- Commentary 10 Sept 2026Follow-up linking the forecast rationale ↗
Mikita Balesni. Original source inspected. Personal views.
- Organizational disclosure Accessed 10 Sept 2026Alignment research biography ↗
Mikita Balesni. Professional role checked; date is the access date.