Specific proposals about AI contributing to human extinction or permanent loss of human control, with their sources, assumptions and objections.
A growing collection of specific scenarios. Each explains a possible pathway and the conditions it would require. Researcher proposals and any site-developed scenarios are labeled separately.
2 scenarios · Concentration of power
Kulveit and colleagues propose that competitive automation could remove humanity's ability to steer society.
Jan Kulveit · Raymond Douglas · Nora Ammann · Deger Turan · David Krueger · David Duvenaud · Andrew Critch · Jacob Tsimerman
Davidson, Finnveden and Hadshar describe how AI-enabled power seizure could extend into global dominance and indefinite rule.
Tom Davidson · Lukas Finnveden · Rose Hadshar
Scenarios are reviewed and revised as their arguments and evidence develop. The timeline records observed incidents, investigations and attributed warnings; Methodology explains our assessments.